NVIDIA Earnings: What the Report Reveals for NVDA Stock

The AI Boom: More Hype Than Horsepower? Nvidia's Earnings and the House of Cards

Alright, folks, strap in. Wednesday, November 19, 2025. That's when Nvidia's supposed to drop its third-quarter earnings, and honestly, the air around this whole thing feels thicker than a Silicon Valley pitch deck. Analysts are out here predicting $1.25 EPS on a cool $54.9 billion in sales – a 56% jump year-over-year. And Q4 guidance? They’re tossing around $61.44 billion like it’s pocket change. But let's be real, the numbers almost don't matter as much as the narrative. This ain't just about `nvidia earnings 2025`; it's about the whole damn AI circus. Nvidia Earnings: 3 Red Flags the AI Trade Is Topping - Investing.com

Jensen's Grand Vision or Just a Smoke Screen?

The real showstopper, the thing everyone's still buzzing about, came straight from the top. Jensen Huang, Nvidia's CEO, stood up at the GTC conference in Washington back in October and casually announced a staggering $500 billion in AI chip orders for 2025 and 2026. Half a trillion dollars. That’s for their current Blackwell and next year's Rubin GPUs, plus all the networking goodies. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang surprised investors with a 'half a trillion' forecast. It'll come up at earnings - CNBC Wolfe Research's Chris Caso, bless his optimistic heart, thinks this means data center sales could be $60 billion higher than previous 2026 estimates.

Now, I don't know about you, but when someone throws out a number that big, that far out, my BS detector starts blaring. Especially when Nvidia's official policy is to only give one quarter of forward-looking guidance during earnings calls. So, this $500 billion figure? It's not guidance; it's a declaration. A marketing masterstroke, perhaps, to keep the `nvidia stock` price humming, but it sure as hell ain't transparent. It feels less like a forecast and more like a high-stakes poker bluff, daring everyone to call it. Are we just supposed to take that at face value, or should we be asking what kind of magic beans Huang's been selling?

And then there are the "investments." Nvidia's apparently throwing $10 billion into OpenAI equity, supposedly in exchange for OpenAI buying 4-5 million GPUs. And another $5 billion into Intel to "improve compatibility." Oh, and a cool billion into Nokia for cellular network hardware. Call me cynical, but this sounds less like organic growth and more like a frantic game of musical chairs where Nvidia's buying up all the seats. Are these genuine investments, or is Nvidia just propping up its own customer base, creating a sort of circular financing scheme that keeps the `nvda earnings` looking good on paper? It's like a kid buying their own lemonade to make the stand look busy. This whole thing, it smells a little... fishy.

The Cracks in the AI Edifice

While Jensen's out there painting a picture of an endless AI gold rush, real-world problems are starting to poke holes in the canvas. Take CoreWeave, for instance, one of those AI cloud services hyperscalers. They just reported supply chain pressures are delaying a data center project, which means a hit to their Q4 and a reduced full-year revenue guidance. Their stock has nearly halved in the last month! That's a gut punch, ain't it? If demand is so "insatiable," why are crucial projects getting bogged down, and why are investors bailing on companies that supposedly ride this wave? It's a real-life example of the gears grinding, a stark contrast to the frictionless future we're promised. You can almost hear the whirring of servers slowing down, the frustrated sighs of engineers dealing with real-world logistics, not just digital dreams.

And what about the big spenders, the cloud giants? Meta raised its capex guidance but then immediately slapped on "more disciplined" AI infrastructure spending. Microsoft's capex is at a record $30 billion, and Alphabet's talking $91-$93 billion. They're spending, sure, but are they spending because they need to, or because they're terrified of being left behind? Microsoft CFO Amy Hood is "very confident" their capex is tied to contracted business, and Azure AI revenue is up 35%. That's good, I guess. But there's a difference between "contracted business" and actually making money from all this AI. This whole thing feels like a massive game of 'keep up with the Joneses,' where everyone's buying the biggest, fastest car, even if they don't know where they're going.

Let's not forget China. Nvidia's Chinese-oriented H20 chip was restricted from export earlier this year. Huang had to go cozy up to President Trump for export licenses, giving the government 15% of China sales. Now he's saying selling current Blackwell chips to China is "a decision for President Trump to make." That's a massive market potentially hobbled by politics. Oppenheimer analyst Rick Schafer thinks China could be a $50 billion annual revenue opportunity, just sitting there, waiting for a political green light. That's a hell of a lot of potential `nvidia earnings` left on the table.

And the bubble talk? It's not just me muttering in my basement. PitchBook data shows down rounds hitting a 10-year high, with nearly 30% of those in AI/machine learning. Series A AI companies are burning cash twice as fast as earlier cohorts. Bain & Company estimates the AI sector needs $2 trillion in annual revenue by 2030 to justify current investment levels. Current revenue? Tens of billions. That gap... that's not a gap, it's a chasm. It’s like pouring concrete into a bottomless pit and hoping it eventually forms a foundation. The `stock market` might be up, `NVDA` up 41% year-to-date, but some days I wonder if we’re all just watching the `qqq` climb a ladder to nowhere.

This Whole Thing Smells Like Desperation

So, when `nvidia earnings` hits on Wednesday, don't just look at the headline numbers. Dig into the details, the whispers, the unspoken anxieties. Is the demand truly insatiable, or is it being manufactured, subsidized, and politically constrained? Are these investments strategic, or are they a desperate attempt to shore up a shaky ecosystem? The market, after all, has already shown its jitters, with `nvidia stock` trading 5% down since Huang's audacious forecast. Investors want to hear about competition from custom ASICs, and rightly so. Because if everyone's building their own chips, where does that leave the king of GPUs? This ain't about innovation; it's about survival.

It's a House of Cards, Man