TTD Stock: Wedbush's Earnings Take and the Data's Discrepancy

Alright, let's dive into this Trade Desk situation. Wedbush analyst A. Reese is projecting $0.25 EPS for Q3 2025 (estimates released November 4, 2025), while maintaining a "Hold" rating. Now, this is after Trade Desk already whiffed on their Q3 earnings, reporting $0.18 EPS back on August 7, 2025—missing estimates by a hefty $0.24. That's a miss big enough to make you spill your coffee.

The Revenue Mirage?

The Q2 2025 revenue, however, painted a rosier picture: $694.04 million, up 18.7% year-over-year, and exceeding analysts' expectations of $686.00 million. So, we have revenue beating expectations, but earnings falling short. This discrepancy immediately raises a red flag. Are they spending too much to acquire that revenue? What's the cost of each incremental dollar of sales? These are the questions I want answered.

Director Andrea Lee Cunningham selling 1,403 shares of TTD on September 10, 2025, at $48.20 per share (totaling $67,624.60) isn't exactly a confidence booster either. Insider selling isn't always a cause for alarm, but it adds another layer of complexity to the narrative. Was this pre-planned? Did she have information we don't? (Probably not, but it always makes you wonder, doesn't it?)

Now, Wedbush's estimates for the coming quarters and years are...optimistic, to say the least. Q4 2025 is projected at $0.40 EPS, FY2025 at $1.01 EPS, and then a steady climb through 2026 and 2027, culminating in $2.31 EPS for FY2027. That's a hockey stick projection if I've ever seen one. Are they baking in some major, unannounced product launch or acquisition? Or is this just wishful thinking?

The consensus rating for Trade Desk stock is "Hold," with an average price target of $84.48. This is where things get interesting. We've got twenty analysts with a "Buy" rating, thirteen with a "Hold," and four outright "Sell" ratings. The range of opinions is unusually wide. It's like a classroom where everyone has a different answer and nobody wants to show their work. BTIG Research downgraded shares from "buy" to "neutral" on August 8, 2025, which coincides with the disappointing Q3 earnings. Needham & Company LLC reaffirmed a "buy" rating with an $84.00 target price on September 8, 2025. HSBC reaffirmed a "hold" rating, but with a much lower $56.00 target price on August 11, 2025. Wells Fargo & Company set a $53.00 target price and gave an "equal weight" rating on October 6, 2025. BMO Capital Markets cut their target price from $115.00 to $98.00, but maintained an "outperform" rating on August 8, 2025.

The analysts are all over the map. It's a mess.

The Fundamentals: Are They Strong Enough?

Trade Desk operates a self-service cloud-based platform for data-driven digital advertising campaigns. (They're basically selling shovels in the digital gold rush.) Their return on equity is 15.19%, and their net margin is 15.57%. These are solid numbers. No complaints there. The stock opened at $47.70 on Thursday. It has a 50-day moving average of $50.22 and a 200-day moving average of $62.78. The 52-week low is $42.96, and the 52-week high is $141.53. That's a huge range. The volatility is palpable. I've looked at hundreds of these filings, and this kind of spread always makes me nervous.

Trade Desk has a market capitalization of $23.32 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 57.47 (high, but not unheard of for a growth company), a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 2.55 and a beta of 1.43. Company insiders own 10.00% of the stock, and hedge funds and institutional investors own 67.77%. So, the institutions are in, but insiders aren't exactly loading up.

Trade Desk's situation reminds me of a high-stakes poker game. Everyone's got a hand, but nobody's quite sure what anyone else is holding. The revenue growth is there, but the earnings miss raises serious questions about profitability and cost management. The analyst ratings are all over the place, and insider selling adds to the uncertainty. The fundamentals are decent, but the valuation is stretched.

The Market Has Spoken, but Said Nothing

So, what's the real takeaway? The market is indecisive, and for good reason. Trade Desk has potential, but it also has risks. The Q4 earnings will be crucial. If they can deliver on those numbers, the stock could rebound. If they miss again, look out below.