Blue Origin New Glenn Launch: NASA Mars Mission and the Timeline

Blue Origin's New Glenn: A Second Chance or Second Fiddle?

Blue Origin is gearing up for the second launch of its New Glenn rocket, slated for Sunday, November 9th, from Cape Canaveral. This isn't just another launch; it's a pivotal moment for Bezos' space venture. The mission: to propel NASA's ESCAPADE spacecraft toward Mars. A live webcast will be available, naturally.

The first launch back in January, while achieving orbit with the upper stage, ended with the booster failing to stick its landing on the drone ship. A lost booster translates directly to lost capital, and more importantly, lost time. Time, as any investor knows, is the ultimate constraint. This second attempt carries significantly more weight (pun intended).

The ESCAPADE Factor

NASA's ESCAPADE mission presents a unique opportunity, but let's break down what's truly at stake. New Glenn will be carrying two spacecraft to Mars, tasked with observing solar winds and space weather. The mission is also a commercial venture, incorporating technology from Viasat for potential use in low-Earth orbit NASA missions.

Now, consider the FAA operations plan advisory. The launch window is a tight 2:45 to 5:11 p.m. ET. That’s a two-and-a-half-hour window to execute a mission that will either validate or severely undermine years of development and a billion-dollar investment in Launch Complex 36. The pressure, I suspect, is immense.

The question that keeps nagging at me: why New Glenn for ESCAPADE? NASA has options. SpaceX, for instance, has a proven track record. Was Blue Origin's bid simply more competitive on price (a common tactic for new entrants), or did New Glenn offer a specific, technical advantage that swayed the decision? Details on the selection process remain scarce, which is, frankly, a bit unusual for a project of this magnitude.

Landing the Narrative

The planned landing of the booster on the drone ship "Jacklyn" is more than just a technical exercise; it's a symbolic one. A successful landing demonstrates reusability, a cornerstone of modern rocketry and a key factor in reducing launch costs. But let's be honest: one successful landing doesn't erase the memory of the first failed attempt.

Blue Origin envisions New Glenn as a workhorse, capable of launching Amazon's Project Kuiper satellites and handling other commercial and government missions. The vision is grand, but the execution needs to be flawless. A single, spectacular success can shift public perception, but sustained reliability is what truly builds trust – and attracts long-term contracts.

I've looked at similar ventures, and the initial launch success rate can be a misleading metric. It’s the subsequent launches – the consistency – that separates the viable players from the expensive experiments. Will New Glenn become a reliable player in the space launch market, or will it remain a costly demonstration project? That's the multi-billion dollar question.

Is This Launch a Make-or-Break Moment?

The answer, predictably, is nuanced. A successful launch and landing of the booster significantly de-risks the New Glenn program and validates Blue Origin's engineering approach. It opens doors to future contracts and strengthens Bezos' position in the burgeoning space economy.

A failure, however, doesn't necessarily spell the end. SpaceX, after all, experienced its share of setbacks early on. But another failure would raise serious questions about the overall design and management of the New Glenn program. It would erode investor confidence and make it significantly harder to secure future funding. The stakes are undeniably high.

The Data Demands Skepticism